Stat Chug: The Statistical Anatomy of the Rooster-Dragon

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The Statistical Anatomy of the Rooster-Dragon: Dissecting the Dichotomous Nature of One of Tapey Beercone’s Most Intriguing Players

When last we left off here at Stat Chug, this author presented a graph depicting the batting characteristics of the Regular Players of Tapey Beercone as they compared to average. This showed that no player compared close to average, with the possibility of one exception. Here’s what that graph looked like:

Recurring Players Compared to Average on Four Metrics

The one player close to average was Chris “The Rooster”/”The Dragon”. But as we will find, on closer inspection Chris is anything but average.

Chris at the first Tapey Beercone game.

Chris was present at the Sport’s Founding, and he has been a frequent play ever since, but he didn’t always go by his current nicknames. Back in the Early Days, many player’s identities were still being worked out, and Chris was no exception. Athletic, if clumsily so, Chris was an all-around player best known for his antics on the base-paths. But he reached a new level on notoriety with one swing when he recorded the Sport’s first, and so far only, Grand Salami at Mad River Cathedral. While we didn’t know it at the time, this was the first roar of “The Dragon”.

Chris would end Season 2 on a high note winning the 2012 Winter Classic in the Miracle Near 79th Street. Next up, to kick off Season 3, was the Hell Hole Series in July of 2013. It was there, at Hell Hole Graveyard during the season opening game that “The Dragon” was truly born. In that first game, shortened due to the elevated inebriation of the opposing team, Chris went a prodigious 4 for 4 at the plate. “The Dragon” took flight with three fly ball extra base hits including a colossal two run home run which left him just a triple short of the cycle in less than two innings.

Note: Artist Depection of “The Dragon” Emerging at Hellhole Graveyard. **NOT AN ACTUAL PHOTO**

“The Dragon” kept the heat on in game two of the series, ending the game’s opening frame with a bases clearing double to secure a five run inning for his squad. For good measure he added two more doubles and a triple and was a home run short of the cycle by the third inning. It was at this point that we all understood the power of “The Dragon”, but it was also at this point that “The Dragon’s” darker alter ego made its first appearance.

Roosters are known to faint under extreme duress.

The top of the third inning ended in a fielder’s choice hit by “The Master”. Kelly scored on the play, while “The Dragon” made it safely to third, but in doing so he spilled his beer! Unbeknownst of us players on the field that day, the action caused a tremor throughout the beerverse, and within moments “The Dragon” was replaced by “The Rooster”. During the bottom of the third, Chris become a useless fielder. Be it overcome by the guilt from his beer foul, or simple succumbing to the game’s drinking, whatever the cause, Chris quickly collapsed comatose on a rock in center field. When he was awoken by his teammates he was coronated Beerpope Rooster I. When his team came up to bat again, the former Dragon’s offensive capabilities has been neutered. In “Rooster” form, Chris could barely muster a hit, going just 1 for 3 in the inning. Luckily for Chris, the game was soon over and his team held on for the win.

An example of the flailing swings of “The Rooster”.

Luckier still, “The Dragon” would return for the next game, and for the remainder of Season 3 leading Chris to be named Offensive Player of the Season and even garnering him some support for MVP. For in “Dragon” form Chris is a force to reckon with. In all his time in Tapey Beercone’s Statistical Era he has logged 17 game where stats were recorded, and 12 of those game could be classified as “Dragon Games” where he remained in “Dragon” form for all or most of the contest. Compiling his batting stats from all those games gives us a statistical representation of “The Dragon”. “The Dragon” sports an exceptional 2:1 Walk/Strike Out Ratio and his strike out rate of just 4.5% would rate second lowest among the Regular Players. “The Dragon” compliments this elite plate disciple with ferocious power, sporting an Isolated Slugging (ISO) of .202, third best among Regular Players. Add an above average .770 BABIP and “The Dragon” sports a AVE/OBP/SLG triple slash line of .731/.759/.933 which all would rate at or near the best in the league.

“The Dragon” easily lashes a fly ball into left field.

When “The Dragon” is present pitchers quake with fear, but not so when “The Rooster” shows up. Chris held off “The Rooster” until mid way through Season 4, when again he would be named Beerpope, this time Beerpope Rooster II. Since then “The Rooster” has shown up about as often as not. Collectively, in those five “Rooster Games”, the statistical profile of “The Rooster” becomes clear. Compared to “The Dragon”, his strike out rate septuples!! to a near league worst 32.7%! And this flailing at the plate is matched by a quadruple clipping of his power to a much tamer ISO of .043. About the only positive in “The Rooster’s” offensive profile is an increased BABIP of .833, caused by trading some of “The Dragon’s” powerful fly balls for more lightly hit grounders and liners. Still, adding this up gives a triple slash of just .532/.577/.574. Here’s how the numbers for the two alter egos compare.

The stark contrast between “The Rooster” and “The Dragon” extends to the game by game level as well. Looking at Weighted On-Base Average, (wOBA), a weighted measure of the outcomes of a batter’s plate appearances, one finds that Chris’ best game as “The Rooster” would rate as his sixth worst as “The Dragon”. Likewise his worst game as “The Dragon” would still be above average for “The Rooster”.

Which brings us back to the beginning of this post, and to the question of whether Chris was the one exceptional player who’s batting could be characterized as average. By dissecting his statistics in greater detail it becomes clear that while compiled in aggregate his statistical outcomes may represent average, this belies the fact that there are clearly two modes which generate those stats. Basically, two players formed as one. If one was to reconstruct the original graph shown above, splitting “The Rooster” and “The Dragon” into their own separate statistics, here’s what the graph would look like.

Recurring Players Compared to Average on Four Metrics with “The Rooster” and “The Dragon” separated.

How can one player hold two such dramatically different statistical profiles within himself? That is the mystery of the dichotomy of “The Rooster”/”The Dragon”. But as to the cause, though many have searched for it, that remains a mystery as well. Still, one potential cause can be ruled out, that being drinking. While anecdotally “The Rooster” has tended to show up when Chris drinks more, in his “Dragon Games” his 1.09 BPI slightly outpaces his “Rooster Game” rate of 1.03. So however you choose to “Foster The Dragon”, don’t be afraid to let “The Dragon” drink.

That’s all for this now.

Cheers.

Author: The Coach

#8 The Coach, founding Regent of Tapey Beercone.

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